From the previous plot, it can be observed that the time series seems to have an upwards trend. To forecast future temperatures, first find a suitable model to match the actual data. Maple can select a suitable model from a family of 30 related models and adjust it to this time series.
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| (2.1) |
To evaluate the fit of the model, view the OneStepForecast:
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From this plot, you can see that the forecast model follows the data suitably well. Using the model data, you can predict twenty years of future data using the forecast command and include a 95% confidence interval in order to see if the trend for global temperatures continues to increase based on previous data.
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| (2.3) |
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From this plot, you can observe that based on the past 100 years of data, the trend indicates that global temperatures will increase.
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Based on the forecast model, you can expect the global temperature to go up 0.15°C over the next twenty years.